Over the past several months, one of the most striking developments in Australian politics has been the surge in support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation.

For decades, Australian politics was dominated by two major parties. Labor and the Coalition regularly captured close to 90 percent of the vote combined. That era now appears to be coming to an end, as voters increasingly turn toward minor parties and alternatives.

Recent polling suggests that One Nation is emerging as one of the biggest beneficiaries of that shift.

Polling conducted by Roy Morgan in November 2025 showed One Nation climbing to 14 percent of the national primary vote, its strongest polling result since the party’s breakthrough period in the late 1990s. The result marked a significant increase in support compared to previous years and suggested growing dissatisfaction with the traditional political parties (Roy Morgan, Federal Voting Intention, November 2025).

Momentum continued into the new year.

A Roy Morgan survey published in January 2026 recorded One Nation jumping to 21 percent of the national vote, gaining six percentage points in a single week while both major parties declined. In that poll, Labor recorded 28.5 percent while the Coalition sat at 24 percent, placing One Nation firmly within striking distance of both major parties (Roy Morgan, Federal Voting Intention, January 2026).

The surge did not stop there.

A subsequent Roy Morgan poll later that month found One Nation had increased again to 22.5 percent of the primary vote, overtaking the Liberal Party in the survey for the first time. Labor recorded 30.5 percent support while the Liberals fell to 20 percent (Roy Morgan, Federal Voting Intention, January 2026).

By early February, the party reached an even more remarkable milestone.

A Roy Morgan poll released in February 2026 recorded One Nation at 25 percent of the national primary vote, a record high in the survey. Labor held around 30.5 percent support while the Liberal Party had dropped to just 18 percent (Roy Morgan, Federal Voting Intention, February 2026).

The polling results suggest that support for the major parties is continuing to erode, while voters increasingly look for alternatives.

Political analysts have long warned that Australia’s traditional two-party dominance was weakening. At the 2022 federal election, the combined primary vote of Labor and the Coalition fell to historic lows. More recent polling suggests that trend has continued.

Much of One Nation’s support appears to be coming from voters who previously backed the Coalition but feel the Liberal Party no longer represents their concerns, particularly on issues such as immigration, cost of living pressures, energy policy and national sovereignty.

The rise is also being reflected at the state level.

In South Australia, where the next major electoral test will take place, the party is widely expected to perform strongly. Under South Australia’s proportional voting system for the Legislative Council, relatively modest vote shares can translate into parliamentary representation.

If current polling trends translate into votes on election day, One Nation could potentially secure multiple seats in the upper house, while also mounting competitive challenges in selected lower house electorates.

That possibility has placed the South Australian election firmly in the national spotlight.

For supporters of One Nation, the election will be an important test of whether the party’s growing national polling support can translate into real parliamentary representation.

For the major parties, it represents a warning.

Across Australia, the combined vote of Labor and the Coalition continues to decline, while voters increasingly look for alternatives outside the traditional political system.

Instead of straightforward two-party contests, elections are now increasingly becoming three-way or even four-way races, with minor parties and independents reshaping the political landscape.

Whether One Nation’s current polling surge ultimately translates into seats remains to be seen. But the direction of Australian politics is becoming increasingly clear.

The era of automatic two-party dominance is fading.

And with the next election approaching, all eyes are now on South Australia to see just how far this political realignment will go.